Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?
Probability
6¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$6.8K
Liquidity
$22.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1569h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $22.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1568.9h
- 15:05SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1569h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.4pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.6pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.8pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.8pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.7pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.8pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 9¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.8pp
to 6¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.2pp
to 6¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.4pp
to 6¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.3pp
to 6¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 6¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.2pp
to 6¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.1pp
to 6¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.3pp
to 6¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.9pp
to 6¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.3pp
to 6¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 6¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 6¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
7- 0¢-0.1pp
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $10.9M
- 6¢-1.0pp
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.9M
- 54¢+21.5pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $928.7K
- 12¢+1.5pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $838.4K
- 1¢-3.8pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $807.4K
- 4¢+0.3pp
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Geopolitics · Vol $712.5K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).