Mindless-Wit
0x1ab5fef31af92c9d404d2293a0ccf7fa1aeb4859
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$902.89
Total PnL
$107.20
Realised
$12.01
Win rate
50%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
566 shares @ 50.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$322.90
$39.90
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
648 shares @ 48.8¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$278.20
$-38.18
- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
51 shares @ 72.2¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$43.54
$6.75
- YES
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
105 shares @ 9.0¢·now 41.3¢·exp Jan 29, 2027$43.46
$33.95
- YES
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
105 shares @ 12.0¢·now 37.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2027$38.82
$26.27
- YES
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
85 shares @ 14.8¢·now 30.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$25.41
$12.89
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
23 shares @ 84.2¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.87
$1.87
- YES
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
60 shares @ 20.4¢·now 28.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$16.86
$4.60
- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
17 shares @ 78.3¢·now 72.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$11.94
$-1.06
- YES
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
72 shares @ 8.5¢·now 14.2¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$10.29
$4.12
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.06Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 22, 23:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?$1.00Jul 21, 06:37 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$0.00Jul 20, 15:33 UTC
- SPLITWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$15.00Jul 20, 08:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 20, 08:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$8.50Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 20, 00:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 20, 00:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$11.94Jul 19, 22:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$3.07Jul 19, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$1.02Jul 19, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$1.02Jul 19, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$2.04Jul 19, 22:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$1.47Jul 19, 22:28 UTC
- MERGEWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$5.00Jul 19, 21:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
18 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 18
- Avg trade size
- $1.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 11:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.