0x1abe2a00efd52d70b480b1d4dd12a09a6be01dda
0x1abe2a00efd52d70b480b1d4dd12a09a6be01dda
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$625.72
Total PnL
$13.75
Realised
$7.86
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
283 shares @ 49.9¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$233.08
$92.08
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1651 shares @ 16.9¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$206.39
$-72.43
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
171 shares @ 52.6¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$79.56
$-10.44
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
244 shares @ 21.7¢·now 22.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$54.93
$1.93
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
18 shares @ 11.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$18.18
$16.18
- YES
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
33 shares @ 30.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$10.17
$0.17
- YES
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
333 shares @ 1.5¢·now 2.4¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$7.83
$2.83
- NO
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
16 shares @ 32.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$6.17
$1.17
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
556 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.61
$-1.39
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
63 shares @ 8.0¢·now 4.8¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.97
$-2.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$1.08Jun 18, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$2.00Jun 18, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?$10.61Jun 17, 22:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill England vs. Croatia end in a draw?$0.00Jun 17, 22:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$0.00Jun 17, 22:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$0.00Jun 17, 22:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill England win on 2026-06-17?$24.56Jun 17, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$3.26Jun 17, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$5.44Jun 17, 21:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$0.00Jun 17, 21:51 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$12.50Jun 17, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$5.00Jun 17, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$5.41Jun 17, 21:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$15.14Jun 17, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$10.77Jun 17, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$10.67Jun 17, 21:18 UTC
- REDEEMPortugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5$0.00Jun 17, 21:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?$0.00Jun 17, 21:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?$37.21Jun 17, 21:14 UTC
- TRADESELLEngland vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5$19.98Jun 17, 21:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $13.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 04:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 08:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.