Repentant-Icon-Uncertainty
0x1ad287d88136f1153573dc551630b5a6462cb7e0
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$8.68
Total PnL
$-418.55
Realised
$-59.36
Win rate
0%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
67 shares @ 9.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
21 shares @ 19.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.68
$-0.32
- NO
Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
20160 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-60.99
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 53 million views on day 3?
10693 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-13.18
- YES
Will Florian Lipowitz win the 2026 Tour De France?
9560 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.00
$-20.38
- NO
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
2500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Epstein client list released by June 30?
1216 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-22.00
- YES
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.85
- YES
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
571 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?$9.12Jul 19, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Florian Lipowitz win the 2026 Tour De France?$21.40Jul 13, 08:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYEpstein client list released by June 30?$1.04Jul 1, 03:51 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 30, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 29, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 25, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 24, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 21, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
7 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 7
- Avg trade size
- $9.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 27, 10:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 08:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.