Alive-Sandbar
0x1c99da848476e9d6ce83304b96a7b21107eeabaf
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
96
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-905.83
Realised
$17.73
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 96- YES
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?
41458 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-60.28
- YES
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?
5239 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-25.70
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's latest video get 73 million or more views on day 5?
3967 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-6.49
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get 110 million or more views on week 1?
3500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 72 and 73 million views on day 5?
2961 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?
2856 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-31.30
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?
2613 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.23
- YES
Will voter turnout be 71–74% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?
1997 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-37.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?
1873 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-4.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by May 31?$1.41May 26, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?$3.00May 26, 19:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?$2.00May 26, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?$1.00May 26, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?$5.00May 26, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYEx-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?$2.00May 26, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$3.00May 26, 19:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Starmer say "Apologize" or "Apology" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$17.33May 26, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$7.25May 19, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 53 million views on day 3?$2.08May 19, 06:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 19 be between 80 and 85?$1.05May 19, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 3.5 released by May 31?$104.28May 18, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?$29.58May 17, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?$10.00May 17, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?$16.00May 17, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?$2.80May 17, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?$5.25May 17, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?$4.20May 17, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?$15.73May 17, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 19 be between 85 and 90?$1.05May 17, 06:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $9.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 04:41 UTC
- Last active
- May 26, 19:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.