Foolish-Contrail
0x1cc16713196d456f86fa9c7387dd326a7f73b8df
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$355.3K
Total PnL
$-192.9K
Realised
$93.0K
Win rate
91%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
206880 shares @ 56.5¢·now 76.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$158.6K
$41.7K
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
152666 shares @ 76.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$142.7K
$26.7K
- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
31877 shares @ 51.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$31.9K
$15.6K
- NO
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?
6762 shares @ 95.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.7K
$306.41
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
10867 shares @ 16.8¢·now 58.6¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$6.4K
$4.5K
- NO
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
6844 shares @ 76.3¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.0K
$769.96
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
21773 shares @ 15.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.0K
$-214.03
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
838566 shares @ 16.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-134.9K
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
376372 shares @ 7.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-29.9K
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
305055 shares @ 12.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-37.2K
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$45.13Jul 28, 16:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$45.13Jul 28, 16:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$180.54Jul 28, 16:21 UTC
- CONVERSIONFed Decision in July?$0.00Jul 28, 16:21 UTC
- TRADESELLUS charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026?$4.5KJul 28, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$14.2KJul 28, 08:15 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$122.29Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$46.33Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$142.54Jul 27, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$28.50Jul 27, 16:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$28.50Jul 27, 16:51 UTC
- CONVERSIONFed Decision in July?$0.00Jul 27, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$62.23Jul 27, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$1.7KJul 27, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$400.95Jul 27, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$14.2KJul 27, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$17.7KJul 27, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.5KJul 27, 12:32 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$29.88Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$61.24Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$56.0K
Trades
3
Buy share
100%
Window
May 24, 09:20 UTC → Jul 5, 08:47 UTC
- BUYBrazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance$6.0K@30¢Jul 5, 08:47 UTC
- BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$23.6K@22¢May 27, 06:35 UTC
- BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?$26.4K@23¢May 24, 09:15 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
91% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 3 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$6.0K
1 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
limited
3 ledger trades
Top market concentration
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
$26.4K · 47% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $1.7K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 17:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 16:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.