Cultivated-Maniac
0x1d0acfa6db1cc256954de825a95991eab6cded66
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
88
Open notional
$385.85
Total PnL
$-299.78
Realised
$6.15
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 88- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
33 shares @ 86.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$32.77
$4.28
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?
33 shares @ 87.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$32.72
$4.22
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?
33 shares @ 87.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$32.64
$4.15
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 71.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$28.70
$0.20
- NO
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
119 shares @ 20.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$25.53
$1.78
- NO
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
38 shares @ 61.9¢·now 61.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.55
$-0.19
- NO
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
158 shares @ 15.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$22.96
$-0.79
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
20 shares @ 77.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$18.12
$2.53
- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
24 shares @ 74.8¢·now 72.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$17.67
$-0.62
- NO
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
39 shares @ 35.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.47
$3.73
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$7.55Aug 1, 02:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 1, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?$13.88Jul 31, 22:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 31, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?$23.73Jul 30, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$28.50Jul 30, 19:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 13?$35.71Jul 30, 18:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill France win on 2026-07-18?$28.61Jul 30, 18:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?$27.29Jul 30, 18:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$27.05Jul 30, 18:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?$24.28Jul 30, 18:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 24?$21.09Jul 30, 18:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation be 4.0% in June?$19.69Jul 30, 18:57 UTC
- REDEEMIran full airspace closure by July 24?$16.30Jul 30, 18:57 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$16.30Jul 30, 18:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?$5.20Jul 30, 18:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 13?$5.20Jul 30, 18:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $80 on July 13?$5.15Jul 30, 18:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 13?$5.13Jul 30, 18:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 20?$5.13Jul 30, 18:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $14.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 04:47 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 02:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.