Qualified-Cough
0x1d417240157c134211c8565cf6b2f517d73f24d7
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
63
Open notional
$786.83
Total PnL
$-10.2K
Realised
$-859.87
Win rate
8%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 63- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
5426 shares @ 78.3¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$786.83
$-3.5K
- YES
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?
2728 shares @ 67.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.8K
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?
2039 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-47.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24?
1179 shares @ 66.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-788.31
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 13?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 8?
856 shares @ 63.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-541.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 4?
626 shares @ 11.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-74.06
- YES
England vs. Argentina: Neither team to score first?
620 shares @ 32.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-200.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 8?
567 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-334.25
Recent activity
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?$6.49Aug 5, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?$4.80Aug 1, 14:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 31, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$650.00Jul 30, 12:17 UTC
- TRADESELL2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$48.86Jul 30, 12:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$83.37Jul 30, 12:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$0.42Jul 30, 12:09 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$478.52Jul 30, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$3.6KJul 30, 05:56 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 30, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELL2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House$48.82Jul 27, 13:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?$162.73Jul 27, 13:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$57.28Jul 27, 13:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$116.32Jul 27, 13:55 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$317.63Jul 27, 13:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$41.67Jul 27, 13:54 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
29/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $188.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 14:59 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 5, 22:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.