Impure-Contour
0x1d9f719da81cc9ddcc68109522aac482260ac9c6
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$-438.46
Win rate
33%
42 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?
20011 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$0.00
$-335.86
- YES
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalition?
12620 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$0.00
$-41.62
- NO
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?
8034 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$0.00
$-100.24
- YES
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting?
7543 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$0.00
$-47.17
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
7326 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-91.87
- YES
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting?
6003 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-47.43
- YES
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
5249 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-109.36
- YES
Will Lee Jae-myung win Gyeongbuk State (경상북도) in the 2025 Korean Presidential election?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after February 2026 meeting?
3450 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-22.39
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
3179 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-84.09
Recent activity
- TRADESELLMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?$0.24Jul 2, 07:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?$0.26Jul 2, 07:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?$0.03Jul 2, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?$0.09Jul 2, 07:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027?$0.34Jul 2, 07:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027?$0.12Jul 2, 07:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China before 2027?$0.33Jul 2, 07:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027?$0.32Jul 2, 07:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027?$0.69Jul 2, 07:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?$0.78Jul 2, 03:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?$0.85Jul 2, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$0.71Jul 2, 03:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.47Jul 2, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.73Jul 2, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill BNP Paribas fail by end of 2026?$0.34Jul 2, 03:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?$0.93Jul 2, 01:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?$1.07Jul 2, 01:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Portugal win on 2026-07-02?$1.29Jul 2, 01:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?$1.17Jul 2, 01:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$1.16Jul 2, 01:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 42 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
42 closed markets, 33% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $1.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 26, 06:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 07:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 42 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.