Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?

1. 1

   Down 21pp over 24h

   Now 14¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1735h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Wide spread — 23.0¢

   Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

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This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s July monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its July 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy] This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their July 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.