0x1e03803943d35880bb499ec732c54f09e450596f
0x1e03803943d35880bb499ec732c54f09e450596f
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$127.70
Total PnL
$-9.66
Realised
$8.09
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
29 shares @ 69.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$16.96
$-3.04
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
68 shares @ 29.3¢·now 23.9¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$16.35
$-3.65
- NO
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03?
16 shares @ 93.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$15.92
$1.04
- YES
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
25 shares @ 38.9¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.34
$3.64
- YES
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
12 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.56
$1.50
- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
11 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$10.62
$0.64
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
24 shares @ 39.0¢·now 38.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.24
$-0.18
- YES
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 66.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.79
$2.65
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
7 shares @ 85.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$6.78
$0.87
- YES
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?
6 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$5.92
$0.95
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?$0.32Jul 17, 11:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $1.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 08:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.