Pertinent-Temptation
0x1e1bbf689b72312c46a7b973e1130f03a6110c00
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$460.11
Total PnL
$-184.52
Realised
$1.67
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
151 shares @ 79.1¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$150.54
$31.26
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
142 shares @ 61.5¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$117.13
$29.82
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
45 shares @ 96.1¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$43.91
$0.79
- YES
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
55 shares @ 63.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$34.65
$-0.28
- NO
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?
33 shares @ 46.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$21.68
$6.68
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
21 shares @ 93.1¢·now 95.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.44
$0.43
- NO
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
39 shares @ 54.4¢·now 46.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.12
$-3.30
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
16 shares @ 62.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.47
$3.47
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
13 shares @ 83.7¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.28
$1.28
- NO
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
7 shares @ 90.4¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.65
$0.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$35.45Jul 2, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?$15.32Jul 2, 00:22 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$29.04Jul 2, 00:19 UTC
- REDEEMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?$2.25Jul 1, 11:58 UTC
- REDEEM Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$3.95Jul 1, 06:10 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$5.79Jul 1, 06:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$9.83Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$71.95Jun 29, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$71.96Jun 29, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$62.66Jun 29, 03:25 UTC
- TRADESELLIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?$62.66Jun 29, 03:24 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$0.00Jun 11, 19:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?$0.00Jun 11, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$23.21Jun 11, 09:28 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$23.21Jun 11, 09:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?$4.65Jun 8, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$5.00Jun 8, 22:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$9.64Jun 8, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?$30.95Jun 8, 07:03 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$30.95Jun 8, 07:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $25.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 2, 19:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 00:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.