Wallet profile

Vapid-Validate

0x1e1f17412069c0736adfaadf8ee7f46e5612c855

activity 91/100

Wallet digest

whale

Activity score

91/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$457.2K

Total PnL

$-81.4K

Realised

$-9.5K

Win rate

79%

53 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

Recent activity

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

Ledger volume

$34.3K

Trades

1

Buy share

64%

Window

Jun 1, 21:20 UTC → Jun 14, 21:17 UTC

Last 30 days · daily volumemax $0.00

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

50/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

79% win rate over 53 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
pass

38 live trades, 2 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.

Resolved-only track record
pass

53 closed markets, 79% win rate.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

64%

Sample

low

2 ledger trades

Top market concentration

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

$22.1K · 64% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?64% of recorded volume$22.1KMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?36% of recorded volume$12.2K

Profile dimensions

Activity69 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry24 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk53 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
38
Avg trade size
$1.3K
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jul 20, 05:03 UTC
Last active
Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
Win rate sample
53 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 04:01:30 UTC·src:Polymarket Data