Yellow-City
0x1e98620a5fe66ed1a623a424d010fbd917c16c6d
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$352.89
Total PnL
$-141.48
Realised
$-0.20
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
200 shares @ 97.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$199.49
$5.50
- NO
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
110 shares @ 87.7¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$108.46
$11.96
- NO
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
30 shares @ 68.7¢·now 72.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.60
$1.00
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
10 shares @ 88.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.85
$0.05
- NO
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
10 shares @ 45.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.50
$3.00
- NO
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by July 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.39
$0.02
- NO
Discord IPO before 2027?
5 shares @ 74.0¢·now 65.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.25
$-0.45
- YES
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
100 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.25
$-2.75
- YES
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
100 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.05
$-4.25
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
30 shares @ 21.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.04
$-6.45
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$90.00Jul 27, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by July 31, 2026?$3.38Jul 27, 18:06 UTC
- REDEEMOver $1B crypto hack value in 2026?$100.00Jul 16, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$86.48Jul 13, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$9.52Jul 13, 18:58 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $3.5B crypto hack value in 2026?$12.60Jul 13, 04:36 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $3.5B crypto hack value in 2026?$32.40Jul 12, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$98.00Jul 8, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$6.50Jul 5, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$4.00Jul 4, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$5.00Jul 4, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.00Jul 4, 10:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?$100.00Jul 4, 00:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$2.50Jul 3, 04:54 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$10.00Jul 1, 08:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?$1.00Jul 1, 06:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?$299.96Jul 1, 06:11 UTC
- REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$200.00Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?$100.00Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?$64.40Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $22.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 11:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 20:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.