Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30?
Probability
6¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+1.1pp
24h Vol
$410.85
Liquidity
$15.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 6¢; +0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $15.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.1pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.8pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 5¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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