Odd-Pants
0x1f5743455adfd2a544c1bd953725404fe93c54fe
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
48
Open notional
$4.05
Total PnL
$-162.18
Realised
$-42.01
Win rate
0%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
53 shares @ 1.9¢·now 1.8¢·exp Sep 15, 2026$0.97
$-0.03
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
23 shares @ 4.4¢·now 4.2¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$0.94
$-0.06
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
59 shares @ 1.7¢·now 1.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.91
$-0.09
- YES
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
67 shares @ 1.5¢·now 1.3¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$0.83
$-0.17
- YES
Kash Patel out by December 31?
2 shares @ 65.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.39
$-0.61
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
10000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 44 million views on day 2?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
210 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-4.41
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$5.35Aug 19, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$1.05Aug 19, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$1.00Aug 19, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?$1.00Aug 19, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$1.00Aug 19, 21:04 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.05Jun 18, 04:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.04Jun 18, 04:08 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$1.85Jun 18, 04:05 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$0.00May 23, 14:15 UTC
- REDEEMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$0.00May 5, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran coup attempt by June 30?$1.00May 4, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?$1.00May 4, 18:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$2.86May 4, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.05May 4, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.05May 4, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$1.05May 4, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$3.15May 4, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?$1.03May 4, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?$1.00May 4, 18:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $2.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 6, 12:22 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 21:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.