Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Probability
13¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$9.3K
Liquidity
$145.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1572.7h
- 11:19SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1573h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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