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GeopoliticsExpires Jun 30, 2026

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Probability

13¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.0pp

24h Vol

$9.3K

Liquidity

$145.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 11:19
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1572.7h

    LOW
  • 11:19Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 1573h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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