Thoughtful-Gasoline
0x20a3b5f313d477be75440aadbfacdb6dfc37950c
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$263.94
Total PnL
$1.29
Realised
$-1.75
Win rate
0%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
170 shares @ 32.9¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$121.85
$65.85
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
250 shares @ 23.9¢·now 20.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$51.21
$-8.79
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
353 shares @ 17.0¢·now 8.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$29.45
$-30.55
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
32 shares @ 31.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$25.97
$15.97
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 51.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$17.35
$7.35
- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
26 shares @ 65.8¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$7.36
$-9.64
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
46 shares @ 25.9¢·now 15.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.98
$-5.02
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3 shares @ 38.6¢·now 47.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.23
$0.23
- NO
Will Trump nationalize elections?
1 shares @ 78.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.21
$0.21
- NO
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
3 shares @ 32.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Jan 20, 2029$1.02
$0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$1.06Aug 21, 03:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET$1.07Aug 21, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET$1.05Aug 21, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET$12.76Aug 21, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET$10.21Aug 21, 03:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET$3.34Aug 21, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET$1.06Aug 21, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET$1.06Aug 21, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$1.04Aug 21, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$1.07Aug 21, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$1.07Aug 21, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$1.06Aug 21, 02:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$1.06Aug 21, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$1.06Aug 21, 02:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 19, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET$1.06Aug 18, 03:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$0.00Aug 18, 03:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$0.00Aug 18, 03:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $3.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 15, 03:26 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 03:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.