Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
Probability
66¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
+1.5pp
24h Vol
$329.92
Liquidity
$25.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 66¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 24008h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 24007.8h
- 16:13SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 24008h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 66¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 66¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 66¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 20, 2029
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).