Detailed-Membrane-Nylon
0x217192e632646f7519655979acafb1b353a2ade9
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$207.53
Total PnL
$-191.91
Realised
$-1.21
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- YES
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
54 shares @ 92.6¢·now 97.7¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$52.73
$2.73
- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
37 shares @ 92.6¢·now 97.7¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$36.00
$1.85
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
45 shares @ 79.8¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.31
$-3.27
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
61 shares @ 82.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$31.40
$-18.60
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
20 shares @ 83.9¢·now 80.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$16.26
$-0.78
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
13 shares @ 90.1¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.86
$0.18
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
9 shares @ 97.4¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.04
$0.22
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
7 shares @ 97.3¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$7.19
$0.19
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
6 shares @ 88.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.57
$-0.03
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
5 shares @ 91.4¢·now 94.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.16
$0.16
Recent activity
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$25.07Jul 30, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.74Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$50.28Jul 29, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$8.21Jul 29, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$10.15Jul 29, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GameStop acquire eBay?$5.63Jul 29, 00:31 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$7.21Jul 26, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.00Jul 26, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$20.01Jul 26, 13:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$3.92Jul 26, 11:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$11.58Jul 26, 09:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$12.89Jul 26, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$8.82Jul 24, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.00Jul 24, 04:47 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$13.82Jul 24, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$11.79Jul 24, 01:56 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$0.01Jul 24, 01:41 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$5.57Jul 24, 01:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$3.09Jul 23, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$0.10Jul 23, 11:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $5.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 10:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 00:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.