Loose-Soybean
0x218b4736856dbac4263485629b8fa517987722f5
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-357.98
Realised
$-97.90
Win rate
0%
69 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 65°F or below on April 19?
244 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.38
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on April 19?
146 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-2.47
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 47°F or below on April 18?
123 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
110 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 18?
105 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-0.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 18?
81 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-0.89
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 18?
70 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.41
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 29?
67 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill MetaMask launch a token by June 30?$1.12May 31, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?$1.10May 31, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?$1.00May 31, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$1.08May 31, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$1.08May 30, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$1.00May 30, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$1.00May 30, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by May 31?$1.02May 30, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?$0.66May 29, 20:37 UTC
- TRADESELLIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?$0.67May 29, 20:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?$0.90May 29, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?$1.08May 29, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$1.05May 29, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$1.05May 29, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?$1.05May 29, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?$1.00May 29, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?$1.02May 29, 18:29 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?$13.38May 29, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?$1.12May 29, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?$1.00May 29, 06:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 69 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
69 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $15.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 27, 15:23 UTC
- Last active
- May 31, 17:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 69 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.