AIExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Probability

5¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-2.5pp

24h Vol

$338.88

Liquidity

$11.0K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
Link
lmarena.ai
Type
Leaderboard / benchmark
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-2.7pp 7d
1007550250
5¢
Jun 6, 2026, 21:00 UTCJun 13, 2026, 20:36 UTC
updated 20:36:51 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-13T20-36Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 5¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $11.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary leaderboard / benchmark and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary leaderboard / benchmark and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary leaderboard / benchmark and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 387.4h

    LOW

Price movement

-2.5pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.

Biggest hourly move: -5.1pp at Jun 11, 06:00 UTC (to 3¢).

Show top 8 of 24 hourly moves
  • Jun 11, 15:00 UTC · -4.5pp → 4¢
  • Jun 11, 14:00 UTC · -4.5pp → 4¢
  • Jun 11, 13:00 UTC · -4.5pp → 4¢
  • Jun 11, 11:00 UTC · -5.1pp → 3¢
  • Jun 11, 10:00 UTC · -5.1pp → 3¢
  • Jun 11, 08:00 UTC · -5.1pp → 3¢
  • Jun 11, 07:00 UTC · -5.1pp → 3¢
  • Jun 11, 06:00 UTC · -5.1pp → 3¢
updated 20:36:51 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 20:36:51 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

7
Same eventWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

AI

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

openai

Reason

Question text contains "openai" — matched the AI keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?"?

As of Sat, 13 Jun 2026 20:36:51 GMT, YES is priced at 5% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -2.7pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$338.88 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $439.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $11.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.4¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket