Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Probability
37¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$1.7K
Liquidity
$14.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+6.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 37¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $14.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1562.0h
Price movement
+2.5pp over the last 24h, now 37¢.
Biggest hourly move: +15.5pp at 2d ago (to 48¢).
Show top 8 of 23 hourly moves
- 1d ago · -9.0pp → 28¢
- 1d ago · -9.0pp → 28¢
- 1d ago · -8.5pp → 29¢
- 1d ago · -8.0pp → 30¢
- 1d ago · -7.5pp → 30¢
- 1d ago · -7.5pp → 30¢
- 2d ago · +13.5pp → 48¢
- 2d ago · +15.5pp → 48¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
12- 2¢+0.4pp
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?
AI · Vol $530.11
- 10¢-1.5pp
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
AI · Vol $994.56
- 100¢+77.0pp
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?
AI · Vol $0.00
- 7¢-0.1pp
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?
AI · Vol $29.08
- 4¢-1.1pp
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?
AI · Vol $0.00
- 4¢-0.3pp
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?
AI · Vol $544.01
- 5¢+0.4pp
Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30?
AI · Vol $0.00
- 4¢-0.1pp
Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30?
AI · Vol $10.24
- 9¢-0.8pp
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
AI · Vol $277.3K
- 91¢+2.0pp
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
AI · Vol $158.8K
- 0¢0.0pp
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
AI · Vol $133.8K
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
AI · Vol $110.8K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
20 wallets- Caring-Exwife6.1K
- Cylindrical-Ale4.7K
- Warm-Boatload4.4K
- Criminal-Cation2.4K
- Worn-Tanker1.6K
- Hideous-Racer4.6K
- 0xe0f1…c4bd3.3K
- Whispered-Bout3.1K
- Spirited-Motorcar2.9K
- Intentional-Kitten2.0K