Studious-Windchime
0x21ff16230285273f6097846437b46d35e97f5e2a
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$68.7K
Total PnL
$-66.1K
Realised
$34.5K
Win rate
73%
63 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
47226 shares @ 86.2¢·now 78.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$36.8K
$-3.9K
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
25540 shares @ 76.4¢·now 77.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$19.8K
$243.19
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
9215 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$9.2K
$33.81
- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
9124 shares @ 29.3¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$2.2K
$-436.28
- NO
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?
809 shares @ 82.9¢·now 79.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$639.11
$-31.49
- YES
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?
1295 shares @ 5.5¢·now 5.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$70.58
$-1.14
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
4145 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$6.22
$-0.70
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
980 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.47
$-0.49
- YES
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
39655 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.1K
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
34842 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-114.49
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.06Jul 28, 15:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.2KJul 28, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?$28.41Jul 28, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYInk FDV above $500M one day after launch?$3.53Jul 28, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.5KJul 28, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.0KJul 28, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.44Jul 28, 08:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.3KJul 28, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026?$3.80Jul 28, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$111.78Jul 28, 01:11 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$3.00Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$821.01Jul 27, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill STRC hit $100 by December 31?$11.21Jul 27, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill STRC hit $100 by December 31?$18.91Jul 27, 15:46 UTC
- TRADESELLHyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch?$23.36Jul 27, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.11Jul 27, 14:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026$18.90Jul 27, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill STRC hit $100 by September 30?$45.18Jul 27, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill STRC hit $100 by September 30?$719.53Jul 27, 12:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill STRC hit $100 by September 30?$78.15Jul 27, 11:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
68/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 63 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
63 closed markets, 73% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $603.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 14:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 15:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 63 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.