Cylindrical-Merchandise
0x23026b08a7f3897ed1df4c2831d51acc751ea8c9
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$10.22
Total PnL
$-263.21
Realised
$11.49
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- NO
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?
17 shares @ 53.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$6.12
$-2.89
- YES
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
11 shares @ 47.5¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.61
$-2.67
- NO
Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
8 shares @ 15.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2027$1.49
$0.31
- YES
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3800 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-11.40
- YES
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3800 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-11.40
- YES
Will Cyprus be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?
1200 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-7.20
- YES
Will 70-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?
315 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-8.10
- YES
Will Greece be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?
300 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.40
- YES
Will Montenegro be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
220 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-17.60
- YES
Will Cyprus be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
200 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-26.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?$93.28Jul 14, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?$93.28Jul 14, 16:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Darline Graham Nordone replace Graham as South Carolina Senator?$8.00Jul 13, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone replace Graham as South Carolina Senator?$25.00Jul 13, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pamela Evette replace Graham as South Carolina Senator?$8.18Jul 13, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pamela Evette replace Graham as South Carolina Senator?$2.14Jul 13, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?$3.18Jun 30, 12:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?$3.18Jun 30, 12:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?$2.65Jun 30, 12:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$30.00Jun 26, 04:10 UTC
- REDEEMFrance vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Corners$33.33Jun 16, 21:24 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal?$13.19Jun 16, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal?$12.38Jun 16, 20:30 UTC
- TRADESELLFrance vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5$68.84Jun 16, 19:44 UTC
- TRADESELLFrance vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5$1.15Jun 16, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Corners$28.33Jun 16, 19:27 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$43.50Jun 16, 19:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Senegal win on 2026-06-16?$10.45Jun 16, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5$87.00Jun 16, 19:09 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strike on Cuba by December 31?$4.50Jun 16, 18:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $24.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 21:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 16:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.