Cuddly-Altar
0x2352f0bd8393a8017b09282faead25d033781d44
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
47
Open notional
$293.65
Total PnL
$-228.74
Realised
$-2.93
Win rate
0%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- NO
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?
140 shares @ 60.7¢·now 79.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$111.20
$26.04
- YES
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?
140 shares @ 36.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$26.60
$-23.80
- YES
Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?
20 shares @ 70.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$14.40
$0.40
- NO
Tuyo FDV above $100M one day after launch?
20 shares @ 73.0¢·now 62.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$12.40
$-2.20
- YES
City Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch?
18 shares @ 38.5¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$12.27
$5.16
- NO
City Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch?
18 shares @ 57.8¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$10.80
$0.13
- YES
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70?
10 shares @ 39.0¢·now 97.7¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$9.77
$5.87
- NO
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?
11 shares @ 72.8¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.61
$1.80
- NO
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?
10 shares @ 58.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$9.29
$3.50
- NO
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?
10 shares @ 68.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.70
$1.90
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Julian Alvarez score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.07Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$30.19Jul 15, 23:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$100.60Jul 12, 06:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Christian Pulisic score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$6.71Jul 7, 06:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 2?$10.21Jul 3, 08:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 2?$20.95Jul 3, 05:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on July 1?$20.94Jul 2, 08:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 1?$10.00Jul 2, 05:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on July 1?$10.69Jul 2, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 1?$7.30Jul 1, 23:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 2?$7.03Jul 1, 22:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 2?$7.49Jul 1, 22:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?$7.08Jul 1, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on July 1?$6.78Jul 1, 22:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 1?$1.07Jul 1, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 1?$6.18Jul 1, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 2?$7.46Jul 1, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 2?$7.55Jul 1, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?$7.08Jul 1, 21:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 1?$0.66Jul 1, 21:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $10.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 09:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.