Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Probability
61¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-2.5pp
24h Vol
$1.3K
Liquidity
$10.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 61¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6011h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6011.3h
- 17:44SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 6011h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-2.5pp over the last 24h, now 61¢.
Biggest hourly move: +4.0pp at 1d ago (to 63¢).
Show all 16 hour-by-hour ticks
- 03:00 · +3.5pp → 63¢
- 02:00 · +4.0pp → 63¢
- 00:00 · +4.0pp → 63¢
- 22:00 · +4.0pp → 63¢
- 20:00 · +4.0pp → 63¢
- 18:00 · +4.0pp → 63¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 63¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 63¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 63¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 63¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 63¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 63¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 63¢
- 1d ago · +3.5pp → 63¢
- 1d ago · +3.5pp → 63¢
- 1d ago · +3.5pp → 63¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not stated explicitly — read the full market rules below.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.