Excellent-Mythology
0x241ff966f22080fbee3928e194763e575847e15a
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$13.2K
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$-1.3K
Win rate
57%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
3988 shares @ 85.5¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.0K
$559.98
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
11990 shares @ 27.1¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.9K
$-308.86
- YES
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?
1685 shares @ 83.5¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.7K
$255.05
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
1500 shares @ 81.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.5K
$275.37
- NO
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by July 31?
1274 shares @ 95.9¢·now 98.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.3K
$33.98
- NO
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?
500 shares @ 78.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$402.50
$12.50
- NO
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $9B by July 31?
305 shares @ 90.5¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$293.88
$18.27
- NO
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $10B by July 31?
281 shares @ 95.1¢·now 98.2¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$275.80
$8.59
- NO
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $9B by July 31?
333 shares @ 69.6¢·now 58.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$194.67
$-37.33
- NO
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by July 31?
200 shares @ 89.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$179.98
$2.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$119.51Jul 29, 17:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$9.00Jul 29, 17:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$279.99Jul 29, 17:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$396.90Jul 29, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 29?$845.38Jul 29, 11:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?$449.21Jul 28, 07:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?$519.96Jul 28, 07:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?$620.98Jul 28, 07:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?$302.42Jul 28, 07:32 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.20Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?$390.00Jul 27, 02:55 UTC
- REWARD$1.94Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.7KJul 26, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$19.85Jul 26, 11:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$405.94Jul 26, 11:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.82Jul 26, 02:51 UTC
- REWARD$22.79Jul 26, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$127.04Jul 25, 18:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$0.55Jul 25, 18:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$5.40Jul 25, 18:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $671.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 20:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 17:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.