Rusty-Wit
0x257492f3ffa9df584bfb0ec93d8aa0a32135144b
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$2.1K
Total PnL
$605.11
Realised
$479.38
Win rate
100%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
221 shares @ 4.5¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$217.28
$207.28
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
185 shares @ 83.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$168.89
$15.69
- NO
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
155 shares @ 64.4¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$154.09
$54.09
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
190 shares @ 79.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$152.85
$2.85
- YES
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?
168 shares @ 82.5¢·now 85.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$143.64
$5.11
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
163 shares @ 61.5¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$142.36
$42.36
- YES
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?
150 shares @ 68.1¢·now 82.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$124.28
$22.13
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2299 shares @ 8.9¢·now 5.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$122.98
$-81.01
- NO
Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
118 shares @ 84.7¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$117.59
$17.59
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
169 shares @ 51.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$73.69
$-12.70
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$120.00Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?$61.00Jul 29, 14:47 UTC
- REDEEMBoston Red Sox vs. Athletics$31.75Jul 29, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$150.00Jul 29, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBoston Red Sox vs. Athletics$20.37Jul 29, 02:53 UTC
- TRADESELLBoston Red Sox vs. Athletics$16.93Jul 29, 02:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBoston Red Sox vs. Athletics$10.30Jul 29, 02:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBoston Red Sox vs. Athletics$10.30Jul 29, 02:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?$30.00Jul 29, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?$20.71Jul 29, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?$50.72Jul 29, 01:58 UTC
- TRADESELL0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$7.60Jul 29, 01:51 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?$50.58Jul 27, 23:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?$116.28Jul 27, 21:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?$45.85Jul 27, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?$17.60Jul 27, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$16.00Jul 27, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?$26.99Jul 27, 05:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $27.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.