Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
Probability
43¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+12.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$56.91
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 13pp over 24h
Now 43¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 75.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5986.3h
- 13:43SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 42¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 43¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 43¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 43¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 42¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 42¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 43¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 43¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 42¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 43¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 43¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 30¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 30¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 30¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 30¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 50¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 50¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 45¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
6Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (75.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).