Filthy-Dulcimer-Octet
0x25b24f524cb083a1fef880e658e035e8e8544edb
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$392.11
Total PnL
$-5.83
Realised
$2.06
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- NO
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?
109 shares @ 92.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$99.46
$-0.54
- NO
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?
63 shares @ 94.5¢·now 97.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$61.68
$1.68
- NO
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30?
44 shares @ 91.7¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$39.02
$-0.98
- YES
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?
70 shares @ 35.6¢·now 37.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.00
$1.00
- NO
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30?
22 shares @ 92.0¢·now 89.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$19.48
$-0.52
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24?
45 shares @ 22.3¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$10.97
$0.97
- YES
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 26?
10 shares @ 96.4¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$9.96
$-0.04
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 24?
55 shares @ 18.2¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$9.60
$-0.40
- NO
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?
12 shares @ 82.2¢·now 76.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.24
$-0.76
- NO
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 26?
25 shares @ 60.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$8.50
$-6.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$3.74Jun 22, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 24?$5.21Jun 22, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 24?$10.41Jun 22, 14:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vox get a cabinet seat in the next Andalusian government?$5.07Jun 22, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump praise Weijia Jiang by June 30?$5.03Jun 22, 14:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 24?$4.97Jun 22, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 24?$1.91Jun 22, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23?$5.23Jun 22, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24?$5.19Jun 22, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24?$5.19Jun 22, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?$7.81Jun 22, 13:05 UTC
- TRADESELLLabour leadership election scheduled by June 30?$7.27Jun 22, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$5.00Jun 22, 12:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026?$1.54Jun 22, 11:58 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?$0.00Jun 22, 11:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jun 22, 11:49 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?$0.00Jun 22, 11:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?$19.99Jun 22, 11:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?$30.47Jun 22, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 26?$5.10Jun 22, 11:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $5.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 20:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 22, 14:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.