Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?
Probability
32¢
1h
-5.5pp
24h
-4.5pp
24h Vol
$843.97
Liquidity
$29.3K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 32¢; -5.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved down 4.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum signals historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1395.0h
- 20:59SignalMEDIUM
Momentum down
Probability moved down 4.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
Price movement
-4.5pp over the last 24h, now 32¢.
Biggest hourly move: -44.5pp at 20:59 (to 32¢).
Show top 8 of 25 hourly moves
- 20:59 · -44.5pp → 32¢
- 19:00 · -38.0pp → 37¢
- 18:00 · -38.0pp → 37¢
- 17:00 · -38.0pp → 37¢
- 15:00 · -38.5pp → 37¢
- 13:00 · -38.5pp → 37¢
- 09:00 · -38.5pp → 37¢
- 00:00 · -38.0pp → 37¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Novyi Donbas, Donetsk Oblast, (48.450718° N, 37.181238° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Alerts
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