Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?
Probability
32¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+6.5pp
24h Vol
$148.88
Liquidity
$22.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 7pp over 24h
Now 32¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1571h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 7.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1570.6h
- 13:23SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1571h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 32¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 32¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 34¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 33¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 33¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 31¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 32¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 30¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 31¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 30¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 29¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 25¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 25¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 25¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 28¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 26¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a leadership election for the UK-wide Leader of the Labour Party is scheduled by the specified date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is about whether a date for any Labour Party leadership election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Labour Party, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).