Wallet digest

active

Activity score

68/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

105

Open notional

$209.25

Total PnL

$-4.1K

Realised

$-104.61

Win rate

38%

34 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 105

NO
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?
146 shares @ 79.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$134.62
$19.63
NO
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?
34 shares @ 67.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$24.84
$2.04
YES
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
195 shares @ 39.5¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970
$24.36
$-52.63
NO
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?
26 shares @ 47.4¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970
$22.46
$10.16
NO
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$1.06
$0.06
YES
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?
24 shares @ 6.1¢·now 4.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$1.01
$-0.45
YES
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
5 shares @ 85.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$0.72
$-3.38
YES
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 10.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$0.17
$-0.65
NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
2251 shares @ 42.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-950.95
YES
Will Solana reach $150 in January?
831 shares @ 62.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026
$0.00
$-516.27

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$1.71Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.57Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.00Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.91Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
REDEEMWill Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?$46.48Jul 1, 08:39 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.59Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.34Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.71Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.61Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.10Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.26Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.14Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.28Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
TRADESELLWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$79.60Jun 23, 08:53 UTC
TRADESELLWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$376.67Jun 23, 08:48 UTC
TRADESELLWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$19.77Jun 22, 06:06 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.43Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.08Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.57Jun 19, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.16Jun 18, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

52/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

38% win rate over 34 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

34 closed markets, 38% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity37 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry35 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk52 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 28
Avg trade size: $100.24
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Apr 27, 09:50 UTC
Last active: Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 34 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 03:25:56 UTC·src:Polymarket Data