0x271229d5fa9dbef1476e14eedae67fa634c4eb71
0x271229d5fa9dbef1476e14eedae67fa634c4eb71
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.7K
Total PnL
$-3.4K
Realised
$78.58
Win rate
67%
52 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2?
102 shares @ 39.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$101.98
$62.00
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
102 shares @ 49.1¢·now 97.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$98.84
$48.85
- NO
Will ECDSA.fail get at least 50% ahead of Google’s classified circuit by June 30, 2026?
85 shares @ 58.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$85.44
$35.44
- NO
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?
82 shares @ 61.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$80.74
$30.74
- NO
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?
79 shares @ 63.4¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$77.28
$27.28
- NO
Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?
77 shares @ 39.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$76.92
$46.92
- NO
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
94 shares @ 53.3¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$68.87
$18.87
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
67 shares @ 71.7¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$66.64
$18.66
- NO
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026?
76 shares @ 39.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$65.13
$35.59
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
65 shares @ 76.4¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$61.87
$11.87
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump say "MAGA" during June 24 Rally?$16.00Jun 25, 09:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Tax" 20+ times during June 24 Rally?$17.39Jun 25, 09:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during June 24 Rally?$20.67Jun 25, 09:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during June 24 Rally?$27.80Jun 25, 09:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" during June 24 Rally?$66.66Jun 25, 09:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYNatural Disaster in 2026?$11.99Jun 25, 05:18 UTC
- REWARD$1.03Jun 25, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$27.68Jun 24, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?$5.04Jun 24, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?$3.96Jun 24, 18:40 UTC
- TRADESELLGPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?$75.80Jun 24, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$9.00Jun 24, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Tax" 20+ times during June 24 Rally?$1.22Jun 24, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Tax" 20+ times during June 24 Rally?$10.78Jun 24, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?$2.95Jun 24, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?$0.05Jun 24, 10:00 UTC
- TRADESELLGPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?$21.97Jun 24, 09:58 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?$13.66Jun 24, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31$4.46Jun 24, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYJung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026?$1.48Jun 24, 02:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
77/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 52 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
52 closed markets, 67% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $8.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 20:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 25, 09:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 52 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.