Electric-Condominium
0x272c7b12c4b372b6d0931aed641b1e4eec0f7f07
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$3.9K
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$-414.93
Win rate
31%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- YES
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?
2500 shares @ 85.9¢·now 74.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.8K
$-297.71
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
400 shares @ 74.6¢·now 75.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$301.76
$3.36
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
500 shares @ 57.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$272.50
$-12.50
- NO
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?
984 shares @ 21.7¢·now 21.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$211.57
$-2.07
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
434 shares @ 52.6¢·now 44.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$193.02
$-35.27
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
1580 shares @ 22.5¢·now 11.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$181.70
$-174.29
- YES
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
400 shares @ 35.8¢·now 35.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$140.80
$-2.40
- YES
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?
578 shares @ 4.9¢·now 20.4¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$118.06
$90.01
- YES
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?
105 shares @ 79.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$87.67
$4.78
- NO
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?
119 shares @ 59.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$70.98
$0.60
Recent activity
- REWARD$1.96Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$1.08Jul 28, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$2.08Jul 28, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$5.32Jul 28, 18:16 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$5.57Jul 28, 16:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$960.72Jul 28, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$285.00Jul 28, 16:07 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$2.10Jul 28, 16:02 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$2.10Jul 28, 16:02 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$23.10Jul 28, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$5.25Jul 28, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$11.97Jul 28, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$3.78Jul 28, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$14.91Jul 28, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?$6.00Jul 28, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$1.26Jul 28, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$6.30Jul 28, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$1.26Jul 28, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$18.27Jul 28, 11:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$0.00Jul 28, 11:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
31% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $60.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 16:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.