Equal-Normalization
0x276a61ec2bf89b48d7f1f9b4bd23920dba57d445
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$45.89
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$1.66
Win rate
53%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 24?
25 shares @ 83.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$20.37
$-0.38
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 25?
50 shares @ 27.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$13.25
$-0.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 24?
30 shares @ 36.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$9.15
$-1.65
- YES
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
5 shares @ 65.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.13
$-0.13
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
910 shares @ 19.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-173.78
- YES
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
910 shares @ 12.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-111.86
- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
810 shares @ 11.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-93.80
- YES
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
620 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-39.56
- YES
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
620 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-33.80
- YES
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
530 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-31.27
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 25?$32.76Jul 23, 11:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 25?$5.46Jul 23, 09:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 25?$0.78Jul 23, 09:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 22?$30.00Jul 23, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 24?$5.22Jul 23, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 24?$2.79Jul 23, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 24?$2.79Jul 23, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 25?$13.50Jul 23, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 25?$37.15Jul 23, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 24?$20.93Jul 23, 07:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 23?$12.58Jul 22, 22:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 23?$2.58Jul 22, 22:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 23?$4.19Jul 22, 22:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 23?$2.15Jul 22, 22:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 23?$21.10Jul 22, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 22?$0.76Jul 22, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 22?$1.12Jul 22, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 22?$12.06Jul 22, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 22?$12.36Jul 22, 08:41 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $8.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 11:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.