0x2790285c8f0c8e15963d282e50b408fcba348916
0x2790285c8f0c8e15963d282e50b408fcba348916
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
33
Open notional
$83.21
Total PnL
$-30.74
Realised
$-1.47
Win rate
46%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
12 shares @ 68.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.43
$1.36
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 49.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$7.01
$2.27
- NO
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
8 shares @ 63.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.56
$0.69
- NO
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?
6 shares @ 81.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.35
$0.45
- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
6 shares @ 66.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$5.27
$1.32
- NO
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?
5 shares @ 97.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$5.01
$0.11
- NO
Will Chris Carr win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?
5 shares @ 99.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$4.99
$0.04
- NO
Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel win the Paris mayor election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.95
$0.00
- NO
Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.95
$0.00
- NO
Will Thierry Mariani win the Paris mayor election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.95
$0.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?$1.21Jun 5, 12:42 UTC
- REDEEMUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?$1.54May 7, 15:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in April?$1.25May 7, 15:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump visit North Korea by April 30?$0.00May 7, 15:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump visit North Korea by April 30?$0.00May 7, 15:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump visit North Korea by April 30?$1.52May 7, 15:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $0.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 17, 11:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.