Linear-Leaver
0x2811fa36ab944e265c3f5963e00914170b8f6818
Wallet digest
Activity score
97/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
114
Open notional
$4.0K
Total PnL
$-2.04
Realised
$12.20
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 114- YES
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
1466 shares @ 89.7¢·now 97.8¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$1.4K
$118.33
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
219 shares @ 83.5¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$206.63
$23.95
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
46 shares @ 86.5¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$43.71
$3.71
- NO
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
42 shares @ 95.8¢·now 97.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.61
$0.61
- NO
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
34 shares @ 88.2¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$33.84
$3.84
- NO
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?
34 shares @ 88.3¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$33.28
$3.28
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
37 shares @ 81.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$33.15
$3.15
- NO
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?
33 shares @ 92.0¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$32.23
$2.23
- NO
Megaquake by July 31?
33 shares @ 91.8¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$32.19
$2.19
- NO
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
33 shares @ 92.3¢·now 97.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$31.79
$1.79
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?$20.00Jul 29, 22:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the WA-07 House seat?$30.03Jul 29, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS takes Panama Canal before 2027?$20.00Jul 29, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$30.00Jul 29, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by July 31?$20.00Jul 29, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?$30.24Jul 29, 22:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?$53.39Jul 29, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$30.00Jul 29, 21:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?$102.17Jul 29, 21:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$20.44Jul 29, 17:53 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?$25.00Jul 27, 07:44 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$21.88Jul 27, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?$20.00Jul 27, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Congress override any veto in 2026?$20.06Jul 27, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$20.07Jul 27, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYKRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?$20.00Jul 27, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?$20.09Jul 27, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$20.00Jul 27, 07:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $26.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 20:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 22:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.