Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

1. 1

   Up 4pp over 24h

   Now 15¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $18.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.