Tepid-Monopoly
0x28bf066c6cb952da62d6d182c16ad173ada64a4e
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$11.39
Total PnL
$-34.2K
Realised
$-99.35
Win rate
15%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+?
1917 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.96
$-82.40
- YES
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%?
1917 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.96
$-82.40
- YES
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%?
1917 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.96
$-82.40
- YES
Will another candidate win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election?
1917 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.96
$-82.40
- YES
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.8–0.9%?
1917 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.96
$-82.40
- YES
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.9–1.0%?
1917 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.96
$-82.40
- YES
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?
1917 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.96
$-82.40
- YES
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.8–0.9%?
1917 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.96
$-82.40
- YES
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%?
1917 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.96
$-82.40
- YES
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?
1899 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.95
$-81.63
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June?$7.97Jun 23, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 23?$27.74Jun 23, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June?$29.86Jun 23, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June?$29.88Jun 23, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June?$7.96Jun 23, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June?$5.98Jun 23, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June?$23.61Jun 23, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?$14.36Jun 23, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 23?$27.83Jun 23, 05:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 23?$5.00Jun 23, 05:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?$11.99Jun 23, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 24?$29.97Jun 23, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 23?$17.27Jun 23, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$16.68Jun 23, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 23?$7.54Jun 23, 05:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 23?$28.00Jun 23, 05:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 23?$26.22Jun 23, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 23?$12.20Jun 23, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay win the World Cup?$9.99Jun 23, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 23?$29.43Jun 23, 05:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
15% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $18.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 04:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 05:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.