Aged-Crate
0x295b4221b3b333afd859971ee061c2d676422e44
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
117
Open notional
$796.26
Total PnL
$-3.4K
Realised
$74.98
Win rate
71%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 117- YES
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
929 shares @ 17.9¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$236.87
$70.62
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026?
200 shares @ 30.8¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$183.00
$121.50
- YES
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?
103 shares @ 37.5¢·now 97.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$100.42
$61.80
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026?
60 shares @ 53.8¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$56.10
$23.80
- YES
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?
1000 shares @ 12.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$55.00
$-65.00
- YES
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
500 shares @ 16.0¢·now 4.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.00
$-57.00
- NO
Will Bob Rommel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
22 shares @ 82.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$21.68
$3.64
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?
22 shares @ 43.5¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.41
$9.75
- NO
Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
22 shares @ 82.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$18.14
$0.10
- NO
Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
21 shares @ 81.0¢·now 79.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$16.59
$-0.42
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 06:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.