Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?
Probability
21¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
+3.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$4.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5988.4h
- 11:37SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5988h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 21¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 21¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 20¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 100¢+0.1pp
Will Donald Trump visit Switzerland in 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 11¢-0.5pp
Will Donald Trump visit Syria in 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 85¢-1.5pp
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026?
Politics · Vol $180.85
- 53¢-1.0pp
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $235.54
- 22¢0.0pp
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 20¢+6.0pp
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?
Politics · Vol $41.98
- 38¢+4.0pp
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 39¢0.0pp
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?
Politics · Vol $18.00
- 0¢-0.3pp
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Politics · Vol $4.7M
- 3¢-0.1pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $619.9K
- 0¢-0.1pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $488.1K
- 5¢+0.1pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $443.5K
- 0¢0.0pp
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $379.6K
- 0¢+0.2pp
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $371.9K
Market Description
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).