Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026?
Probability
23¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$7.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5985.7h
- 14:17SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 22¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 24¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 25¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 25¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 25¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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