Flat-Badger
0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
76
Open notional
$186.5K
Total PnL
$11.4K
Realised
$2.5K
Win rate
94%
34 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 76- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
13500 shares @ 94.9¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$13.4K
$602.47
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
16885 shares @ 64.5¢·now 75.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$12.7K
$1.8K
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
13022 shares @ 85.1¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.3K
$1.2K
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
11682 shares @ 97.1¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.6K
$293.49
- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
11579 shares @ 95.2¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$11.5K
$478.68
- NO
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
12191 shares @ 81.8¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.9K
$935.35
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
10826 shares @ 91.8¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.2K
$296.33
- NO
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
9309 shares @ 92.4¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$9.3K
$662.77
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
9725 shares @ 86.9¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.2K
$738.62
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
8891 shares @ 97.1¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.9K
$218.78
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.93Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$670.14Jul 29, 00:19 UTC
- REWARD$39.78Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?$1.8KJul 28, 23:33 UTC
- TRADESELLMeloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by July 31?$21.61Jul 28, 23:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$0.63Jul 28, 21:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$1.75Jul 28, 21:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$2.97Jul 28, 21:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$15.00Jul 28, 21:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$30.00Jul 28, 21:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump and Putin meet next in United States?$31.76Jul 28, 21:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$2.3KJul 28, 21:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$183.77Jul 28, 21:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$100.00Jul 28, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$186.00Jul 28, 19:34 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$3.0KJul 28, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLMeloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by July 31?$48.50Jul 28, 18:51 UTC
- TRADESELLMeloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by July 31?$53.00Jul 28, 18:50 UTC
- TRADESELLMeloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by July 31?$50.00Jul 28, 18:50 UTC
- TRADESELLMeloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by July 31?$62.00Jul 28, 18:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$50.3K
Trades
1
Buy share
50%
Window
May 31, 08:10 UTC → Jul 2, 07:46 UTC
- BUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?$7.0K@100¢Jun 10, 04:03 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
69/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
94% win rate over 34 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 5 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
34 closed markets, 94% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
limited
5 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
$25.1K · 50% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $814.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 12:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 34 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.