Playful-Desert
0x2b0d3f800eabe417837fed1c25242573c0829781
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
121
Open notional
$75.97
Total PnL
$-159.63
Realised
$-11.33
Win rate
0%
118 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 121- YES
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
69 shares @ 58.3¢·now 58.6¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$40.17
$0.17
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
50 shares @ 71.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$35.80
$0.25
- BEŞIKTAŞ ESPORTS
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on June 25?
207 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 25?
204 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 3 Egypt?
148 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 25?
119 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 24?
110 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 30?
61 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24?
57 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$36.07Aug 13, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$40.83Aug 13, 20:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?$15.75Jul 27, 02:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$14.81Jul 27, 02:55 UTC
- REDEEMSpain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?$3.03Jul 19, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$10.16Jul 16, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?$1.03Jul 16, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina to score first vs. Spain?$1.03Jul 16, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$1.02Jul 16, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$2.06Jul 16, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$1.04Jul 16, 19:06 UTC
- REDEEMEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$4.30Jul 15, 21:18 UTC
- REDEEMEngland vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$3.85Jul 15, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$2.05Jul 15, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score$2.05Jul 15, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland leading at halftime?$2.07Jul 15, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5$3.06Jul 15, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYLionel Messi: 1+ goals$1.03Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: England (-1.5)$2.08Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?$2.09Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 118 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
118 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $4.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 17:36 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 20:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 118 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.