Embarrassed-Juggernaut
0x2b76c1d12cd928b1d95a6d2c7f1e6f6e7f14edef
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$37.1K
Total PnL
$-36.5K
Realised
$-1.3K
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
33594 shares @ 79.3¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.1K
$3.4K
- YES
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
45788 shares @ 15.6¢·now 9.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.4K
$-2.8K
- NO
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
2191 shares @ 90.2¢·now 94.6¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$2.1K
$95.52
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1500 shares @ 64.2¢·now 19.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$291.76
$-671.26
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
34441 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$120.54
$-14.7K
- YES
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
25045 shares @ 9.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$112.70
$-2.2K
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
2500 shares @ 12.0¢·now 3.2¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$80.01
$-220.02
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
66934 shares @ 27.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-18.1K
- YES
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Western Conference?
507 shares @ 13.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-66.53
Recent activity
- REWARD$5.89Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alberta vote for independence in 2026?$232.53Jul 4, 13:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alberta vote for independence in 2026?$436.55Jul 4, 02:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?$0.00Jul 2, 21:43 UTC
- REDEEMKurds declare independence from Iran?$0.00Jul 2, 21:43 UTC
- REWARD$9.08Jun 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$42.78Jun 28, 03:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$499.25Jun 28, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$745.07Jun 28, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$463.17Jun 28, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$2.06Jun 28, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$525.60Jun 28, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$0.98Jun 28, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$623.58Jun 28, 02:57 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$0.07Jun 28, 02:56 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$0.38Jun 28, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$70.97Jun 28, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$109.80Jun 28, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$540.00Jun 28, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$70.07Jun 28, 02:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
13/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $174.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 10:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.