Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?
Probability
10¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$45.45
Liquidity
$18.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1575.7h
- 08:20SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1576h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 10¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).