Mean-Rye-Outlay
0x2bbf300f888312a8af40d0dbc03d2a82625c5b78
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
26
Open notional
$27.12
Total PnL
$-85.65
Realised
$5.50
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- YES
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
6 shares @ 74.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$4.32
$-0.03
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
5 shares @ 67.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.33
$-0.02
- NO
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
5 shares @ 66.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Nov 1, 2026$3.27
$-0.03
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 76.0¢·now 63.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.15
$-0.65
- YES
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
5 shares @ 61.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$3.02
$-0.02
- NO
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Tribute to America Rally?
9 shares @ 50.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$2.71
$-1.73
- YES
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
10 shares @ 25.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.39
$-0.15
- YES
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
8 shares @ 29.0¢·now 22.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.74
$-0.55
- YES
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
5 shares @ 25.0¢·now 26.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.25
$0.05
- NO
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?
8 shares @ 50.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$1.03
$-3.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?$1.26Jul 3, 02:41 UTC
- TRADESELLDetroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers$4.23Jul 3, 02:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYDetroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers$3.73Jul 3, 01:57 UTC
- TRADESELLChicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians$4.22Jul 3, 00:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYChicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians$4.12Jul 3, 00:19 UTC
- TRADESELLTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?$7.31Jul 2, 23:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the announcers say "Goal" 60+ times during the Spain vs Austria FIFA World Cup Match?$5.00Jul 2, 22:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the announcers say "Fan" 10+ times during the Spain vs Austria FIFA World Cup Match?$0.06Jul 2, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMValorant: Team Vitality vs Karmine Corp - Map 1 Winner$4.90Jul 2, 17:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?$3.39Jul 2, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$3.05Jul 2, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYValorant: Team Vitality vs Karmine Corp - Map 1 Winner$2.49Jul 2, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$3.33Jul 2, 15:36 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$5.67Jul 2, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Bayern" during the Spain vs Austria FIFA World Cup Match?$0.66Jul 2, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Bayern" during the Spain vs Austria FIFA World Cup Match?$0.31Jul 2, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Bayern" during the Spain vs Austria FIFA World Cup Match?$2.30Jul 2, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.29Jul 2, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Fan" 10+ times during the Spain vs Austria FIFA World Cup Match?$2.54Jul 2, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Goal" 60+ times during the Spain vs Austria FIFA World Cup Match?$2.80Jul 2, 06:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
1/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $4.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 22:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 02:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.