Imaginary-Closet
0x2bcd792138a4e184f791b05d9c5c70e3c8f7cbfb
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$3.3K
Total PnL
$-14.9K
Realised
$71.66
Win rate
71%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
556 shares @ 90.6¢·now 97.7¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$542.85
$39.17
- NO
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?
396 shares @ 89.6¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$368.28
$13.28
- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
345 shares @ 94.2¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$332.83
$7.82
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
327 shares @ 93.3¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$312.07
$7.08
- NO
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1300?
320 shares @ 79.3¢·now 95.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$303.73
$50.17
- NO
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
302 shares @ 86.4¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$265.87
$4.74
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?
214 shares @ 70.4¢·now 99.2¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$212.77
$61.78
- NO
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
209 shares @ 96.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$202.37
$1.36
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
149 shares @ 93.8¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$143.66
$3.66
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?
147 shares @ 64.5¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$142.78
$47.78
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$218.77Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 40°C on July 30?$87.42Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on July 30?$20.19Jul 28, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on July 30?$6.06Jul 28, 17:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 27?$66.02Jul 27, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 28?$22.77Jul 27, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eva Bender win the next Hannover Region presidential election?$71.18Jul 27, 16:26 UTC
- TRADESELLItaly Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?$5.30Jul 27, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump approval Up or Down this week?$3.56Jul 27, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eva Bender win the next Hannover Region presidential election?$15.25Jul 27, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bernard Taylor be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?$20.34Jul 27, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bernard Taylor be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?$31.52Jul 27, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the MA-08 House seat?$5.01Jul 27, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?$100.24Jul 27, 07:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?$2.00Jul 27, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 27?$15.16Jul 27, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 27?$30.63Jul 27, 07:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 26?$46.72Jul 26, 22:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $45.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 17:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.