Shiny-Dam
0x2d4070b0455718e74742bce80c333230606b9420
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$51.87
Total PnL
$-49.05
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
26 shares @ 77.8¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$23.01
$3.01
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?
13 shares @ 76.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$10.07
$0.07
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?
15 shares @ 65.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$9.46
$-0.54
- YES
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.35
$-0.65
- DOWN
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 6?
3 shares @ 35.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$1.03
$0.03
- YES
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in July?
1 shares @ 68.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.99
$-0.01
- NO
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 93.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.97
$-0.03
- UP
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 6?
2 shares @ 59.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.91
$-0.09
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?
5 shares @ 20.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.88
$-0.13
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 5?
16 shares @ 12.8¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.22
$-1.78
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNext Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 4, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in July?$1.01Jul 4, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?$1.03Jul 4, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYTesla (TSLA) Up or Down on July 6?$1.03Jul 4, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 6?$1.02Jul 4, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 5?$1.06Jul 4, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 5?$1.06Jul 4, 17:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?$10.17Jul 4, 17:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?$10.24Jul 4, 17:41 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$32.66Jul 4, 17:39 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$21.44Jul 4, 17:38 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$22.93Jul 4, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$5.00Jul 3, 03:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?$11.09Jul 1, 00:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?$0.04Jul 1, 00:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?$0.12Jul 1, 00:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$1.26Jul 1, 00:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$11.89Jul 1, 00:06 UTC
- REDEEMWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 30?$7.58Jun 30, 23:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?$0.14Jun 30, 19:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $9.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 05:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 17:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.